Prognosis and Survival Rates

If you or someone you love has been diagnosed with lung cancer, you may want to know what to expect. Survival rates are one way doctors describe this. They can be useful, but they cannot tell you what will happen in your specific case. This article explains what the numbers mean and what they leave out.

Understanding survival rates

Sometimes survival rates are measured by the number of people within a group of those with the same type and stage of a cancer who are still alive at 5 years. Sometimes survival rates are measured by relative survival rate, which compares those numbers of people alive at 5 years to the overall population.¹

A 5-year survival rate is based on the number of people with the same type and stage of cancer who are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. For example, a survival rate of 67 percent means that 67 out of 100 people with the same type and stage of a cancer were alive at 5 years after diagnosis.¹

A relative survival rate describes the likelihood of survival of people with a certain type and stage of cancer compared to people who don't have cancer. For example, a relative survival rate of 67 percent means that people with a given type and stage of cancer are 67 percent as likely as people without cancer to be alive at 5 years after diagnosis.¹

These rates are based on large groups of people diagnosed years ago. Regardless of whether the survival rates are described as "relative" or not, it's important to keep in mind that survival rates are a look backward, not a prediction.^1,2

What impacts lung cancer prognosis and survival?

Several things shape prognosis:¹

• The type of lung cancer – Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) behave differently and have very different survival rates.
• The stage at diagnosis – How far the cancer has spread when it is found makes the largest difference.
• Your overall health – Other health conditions affect what treatments you can have.
• How the cancer responds to treatment – This differs from person to person.

Biomarker testing has also changed the picture for some people with NSCLC, because it can open up targeted treatments that were not available before.³

Lung cancer 5-year survival rate

Survival differs sharply by type, so the 2 main types are counted separately.¹

For NSCLC, which is the more common type, the 5-year relative survival rate for all stages combined is 32 percent. This is based on people diagnosed between 2015 and 2021.¹

For SCLC, the 5-year relative survival rate for all stages combined is 9 percent. This is based on people diagnosed between 2012 and 2018.¹

Lung cancer survival by stage

The figures below group cancers into 3 stages: localized, meaning it has not spread outside the lung; regional, meaning it has spread to nearby structures or lymph nodes; and distant, meaning it has spread to distant parts of the body.¹

Relative 5-year survival rates for NSCLC:¹

• Localized – 67 percent
• Regional – 40 percent
• Distant – 12 percent

Relative 5-year survival rates for SCLC:¹

• Localized – 34 percent
• Regional – 20 percent
• Distant – 4 percent

Stage at diagnosis makes such a large difference partly because lung cancer is often found late. Of all lung cancers, about half are already at the distant stage when they are found, and only about 1 in 5 are found while still localized.²

Talk to your doctor

Numbers on a page cannot account for your cancer, your health, or the treatments available to you now. Your doctor knows those details and can talk with you about what to expect.

If survival statistics are upsetting to read, it is okay to step away from them. Many people find it more useful to focus on the next decision in front of them.